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In-depth analysis and expert insight into the world’s largest professional network.Statistical Errors and Lifetime Value
Custora, a churn analysis and lifetime value calculation company, notes the results of not segmenting customers by churn rate. This is usually a bigger hypothetical than real problem, since different user categories aren’t usually quite so differentiated. But the hypothetical does illustrate the risks of simplistic user retention analysis.
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Two of the most conventional business models online are doomed to collapse:
“Let’s let users upload media in digital form, and then sell it back to them in print form!” “Let’s get famous online so we get a book deal / TV show!”
These models are easy to understand, and the second model is especially…
In AdWords, there’s a pretty simple rule: the winner is determined by the underlying economics, not by a superior AdWords strategy. In most parts of SEO, that’s true: if someone negotiates a better affiliate payout for the term “mortgage refinancing,” they can probably be the high bidder on a great domain name, and they can…
Quinstreet’s Earnings Beat
A few days after Demand Media beat their earnings estimates and saw their stock price promptly collapse, Quinstreet barely beat estimates and saw their stock rise as much as 22%. The lesson, of course, is to report earnings on a day when the market’s doing great.
Carbonite’s Daring IPO
Carbonite actually priced their IPO,…
The Worst Business Story in the World
Yesterday, we argued that the worst business stories were of the “X nearly reaches Y” genre. We could have cited the example of the “Index reaches round number” stories, but we chose the ever popular “Apple’s earnings/market cap/etc. approach Microsoft’s.”
What Monday was to the S&P, yesterday…
What the Crash Means
Investors should prepare for an economic and financial climate as bleak and unforgiving as last September, when the S&P was about where it is now.
Outsourced Pessimism
The irrepressible Jason Calacanis has a fairly new blog covering tech stories. Calacanis has long been notorious in the SEO field for
Social Media Plays
LinkedIn’s IPO is strong evidence that investors are looking for ways to invest in social media as a trend. But LinkedIn itself is a bad bet on social media:
LinkedIn already has a revenue stream. And it’s not based on anything especially “social”—LinkedIn sells leads and pageviews, both of which are businesses that…
LinkedIn released their earnings on Thursday, beating estimates. They showed faster-than-expected growth in all segments, particularly premium subscriptions (60% growth, vs a 37% projection) and marketing (111% growth, versus 58% expected). As we have previously argued, LinkedIn is making a useful and aggressive push towards being the “Twitter of business.” Their Twitter partnership refers more traffic…
Quarterly Earnings Update
A few search- and social-driven companies have reported their earnings this quarter. An update:
Overstock.com had weak sales growth and lower gross margins, with a drop in sales and marketing expenses and an increase in technology spending. The press release has details. Early in the quarter, they were penalized by Google, which may be…
Conventional financial theory tries to boil an asset down to a few simple variables, all of which consist of measurable inputs. Plug in an interest rate and a default rate, and pow! you know how much your bond is worth. Plug in an interest rate, a cash flow growth rate, and a starting point, and…
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