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Zynga delays IPO, the real reason Google+ uses real names, and daily deal attrition

By Byrne Hobart On August 30, 2011
Includes: FBOOK • GOOG • NYT • SPTF • YELP • yoku • ZYNGA

Zynga Delays IPO

Zynga is not likely to IPO on time, mostly due to the dicey market situation (though why they didn’t announce this during the diciness is a mystery). Dan Primack argues that it’s not a big deal.

Is Google+ an Identity Service?

According to BoingBoing, Eric Schmidt thinks so. If so, this is a more…

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Smart Investors Systematically Undervalue SEO

By Byrne Hobart On August 30, 2011

VCs don’t like SEO-dependent companies, because SEO isn’t the competitive advantage it used to be. Wall Street doesn’t like SEO because it’s too much of a black box. They’re both wrong: public perception of SEO is, by nature, a few years behind the industry most of the time. Why?

People are usually aware of SEO…

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What Baidu Can’t Handle

By Doug Pierce On August 29, 2011
Includes: BIDU

Is Baidu heading toward death by a thousand cuts?

There isn’t a lot in Baidu’s immediate future to be worried about: the Chinese search giant has 75% of China’s search market share, reported a 95% surge in profits for the second quarter, and with Google long gone, no other search engine poses a credible threat….

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Plus! Gaming the quiet period, Google vs scrapers, and why Facebook’s “places” surrender could be bad news for Foursquare..

By Byrne Hobart On August 29, 2011
Includes: FBOOK • GOOG • GRPN • MSFT

Google Brand Affinity Update

Score one more point for Google’s love of brands: they’re now citing recent searches in new search results. In other words, if you search for “airline tickets” and see a big-brand result, and then do a narrow search for “things to do in portland,” the sites that showed up in your…

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More Google+ distribution tricks, a bad month for daily deals, and an odd IPO…

By Byrne Hobart On August 26, 2011
Includes: GOOG • GRPN • P

Google+ Now in Gmail

Yesterday, Google added Google+ hangouts to Youtube. Now Gmail is showing recent Google+ activity. This is a clever way to convince people to update their own Google+ profiles regularly. (Or to convince them to do a one-time “I don’t use this account” update.)

Inside Google’s Search Updates

Google has posted a 

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What’s “Best” About the Best Search Algorithms?

By Byrne Hobart On August 25, 2011

If a search tool is any good, people are going to use it to make decisions, many of them involving money. And as soon as that happens, there’s a monetary incentive to game the search engine. The best search engines, then, aren’t necessarily the ones with the best initial results: they’re the ones most resistant to…

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Building a Business on Nonexistent Norms

By Byrne Hobart On August 24, 2011
Includes: 4SQ • FBOOK

Yesterday we covered “Cannibals“—companies whose business model is pure status quo, and whose growth model destroys the status quo. They’re fun to track, but they’re intrinsically speculative: their entire business model is based on the existence of something that they’re arbitraging away.

The opposite is a special case of network effects: companies that have…

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More Apple updates, Facebook’s privacy overhaul, and how to measure Karma

By Byrne Hobart On August 24, 2011
Includes: AAPL • FBOOK • GOOG • MCD

Facebook Pages and SEO

According to PageLever, Facebook pages get about a third of their referring traffic from search. This could be a good reason to focus on SEO for those pages, but there are some caveats:

Many of these searches are likely to be navigational. Big brand advertisers often direct people to their brands’…

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Dangerous stats, death of the fairness doctrine, and Google’s new conflicts of interest

By Byrne Hobart On August 23, 2011
Includes: FBOOK • GOOG • GRPN • LNKD • MER • SCOR • SINA • TWIT

Statistical Errors and Lifetime Value

Custora, a churn analysis and lifetime value calculation company, notes the results of not segmenting customers by churn rate. This is usually a bigger hypothetical than real problem, since different user categories aren’t usually quite so differentiated. But the hypothetical does illustrate the risks of simplistic user retention analysis.

…

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Existential Risk in Online Business Models

By Byrne Hobart On August 23, 2011
Includes: LNKD • SFLY • TWIT

Two of the most conventional business models online are doomed to collapse:

“Let’s let users upload media in digital form, and then sell it back to them in print form!” “Let’s get famous online so we get a book deal / TV show!”

These models are easy to understand, and the second model is especially…

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